Analyzing the metrics and optics of our geo-political issues regionally and globally that are effecting the trans-atlantic nations.
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Thursday, January 23, 2014
The Greatest "Side Show" About to Begin: Election 2014 & 2016
Many of us get whipped up into a frenzy about politics so much to even realize just how much of the "smoke and mirrors" programs" is programmed for us . It's done long enough to the divert our attention from the more important issues that really determine this nation's outcome. The design of "social engineering"( see "Mind Games" , ABC new T.V. series airing February 25th) of the public will not sense exactly just how certain "push button" issues are made to boil the preverbal blood , confuse and obfuscate regardless of your party affiliation. Oh, it's about to happen , again. The pomp and circumstances of the political systems pinnacle , the election campaign. Colors such as red or blue will be used to cause viewers to foam at the mouth on cue as scandal after scandal of potential candidates are rolled out for public viewing. It's gotten a lot more sophisticated but a "rose by any other name" is still just a rose or should we call it what it really is, dirty politics and the manipulative tactics to divert the public's mind off real issues that effect them , the world and their progeny. The new campaign promises to enact the paid talking heads who "spew venom" and launch millions of "paid" ads will clog up our television screens and pollsters will cold call us constantly, there just isn't any escaping it. There is already so much brewing finger pointing that most of any constituency will not mind the deplorable the public educational system has descended and it's lack of safety in schools. The disproportionate level of poverty with associated issues such as the discontinuing the SNAP program which is in jeopardy or the debate on minimum wage will go by the wayside. The potential of world war creeping in or worse yet, a dirty explosive device utilized to cause a national emergency from hijacked suitcase IEDs from missing ordinance flown by the Air Force is glossed over as just a common mistake or that many with their fingers that are "on the button" utilize scrupulous means to acquire their position is barely paid attention to. As banks amass trillions of dollars in wealth, but tighten their purse strings , the world economies are pushing policies of austerity and sequester on its populous at the populous' own expense. The economic imbalances bankrupting developing nations has a reflexive effect, it's called terrorism. But, we have an even bigger active nuclear problem with nuclear waste being seeped out of the Fukushima TepCo. plant(Japan) at hundreds of tons daily. The spread has crossed over the Pacific Ocean and has crept upon the shores of the Americas, but what does the nightly news do to follow this potential threat to the human species? Not to mention about Iran announcing that it will dismantle it's nuclear program. But, the would rather talk more about a music star "twerking", a governor who can't manage a bridge, the latest break up of T.V. actors or pop stars, or what a NFL cornerback( Richard Sherman) says at the end of a game. Justin Bieber's DUI arrest is run 24 hours a day. We put titles such as "Killing Kennedy, Killing Lincoln and Killing Jesus" as on our bestsellers list in a society with weekly mass shootings! The media has created even a new 9/11 after the Benghazi, Libya if that wasn't confusing enough for Americans still remembering and lamenting about the "original" 9/11 in America. Do the math the mext time you watch a national network news program and see within those precious thirty minutes how much of it is dedicated to "real news" and how much of it is either propaganda, advertisement or stories about television entertainment personalities. Nearly 7 to 10 minutes at best is newsworthy. Let's not even begin to get into climatic-tectonic shifts rocking the planet, earthquakes, hunger, pollution, rising taxes or cost of living index rising. The Business Insider online reported that at least 15 middle class jobs are leaving the U.S.A. for good due to the TPP(Trans-Pacific Partnership and computerized robotics). These include insurance adjusters, computer data, telephonic-operations and sales to mention some. What do we think, that the election of new faces somehow will change our situation? We are going to have look deep down and realize what George Washington, Samuel Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, Benjamin Banneker and Crispus Attucks were thinking about and finally envisioned to bring forth a nation. Abraham Lincoln saw his country tore apart by these issues that tweeked social engineering, yet he still pushed the envelop. However, "the game" had already been put into place. The manipulation of the people to see issues only as black or white, red and blue, liberal or democrat , left and right are all creating this artificial divide that has real consequences .But, today it is more sophisticated and the technology to massively get it out the seemingly programmed message is unavoidable. The education of a people begins and ends with self, with everyday real talk amongst its folk. But, now everybody is busy in traffic , stuffing their mouths down with a quarter to a full pound of flesh and guzzling down something carbonated with a toxic artificial sweetner( the FDA acknowledges that Pepsi has fetal parts and carcinogens, but states it's not enough to do harm). As we stroll out of restaurants with names like Heart Attack Burger, we stumble over some chairs and tables having another stroke or heart attack from the salt in those fries. Oops, did someone say healthcare is only a national issue to be only debated amongst pundits and actuaries? Forget that Moody's the people that grade economies and insurances and annuities just downgraded the American healthcare insurers! Its about to get "very real up in here, people". It will all be anchored on where you will be based on your values and views and I don't many television views, either. As we stretch our dollar how many will be willing to stretch out their necks? OK, put that neck right back into the sand and say " it's all just a nightmare Hollywood effect and I'm "gonna" wake up in the middle of this movie laughing about the whole thing". Let's be more critical in our thinking and reading of newspapers, radio and social media. Create a mind that isn't seduced my the commercialization of products to make you only "feel better" for the moment. Maybe ask what we are handing down to the next generation ask yourself what have we inherited in the last 39 years and what value has it today...then ask what value will it have tomorrow. Teaching the youth to be critical thinkers is not the "norm" , today. The herd effect of being a team player and conformity is the "normity" , so if you don't want to be "bullied" into this amalgamation, keep your head down and don't notice things or speak up about them, "lest ye be struck down". It's time to study CSPAN and see how the congress votes, write your congressmen, talk at town halls, but develop independent and critical thinking and opinions about the choices your leaders make. On the other hand you can lay back and just enjoy the side show again, and again, and again. Well, "gotta" go , I have to go set the DVR; the Knicks are playing at the same time TMZ is on. The beer and pizza is here for the Comedy Central . This going to be great.
Thursday, January 9, 2014
The Silent Factor Balancing the Healthcare Equation : The Certainty Factor of Mortality
In a healthcare system , there are numerous variables that make predictability of a healthy life difficult. No matter how wealthy , healthy, how tall , how heavy or happy anyone is in a society; No matter how many medicines you take or supplements you consume and no matter how evolved medical technology becomes, one thing is definitely a "certainty" for all healthcare systems , mortality. It is perhaps the single largest issue we do not deal with directly on any basis including philosophical , economic, medical or even personally . It should be one of the key factors when computing a systems efficiency. No healthcare system or magical cure has been developed capable of diverting the certain probability of mortality. Since medical science in essence can not change the "certainty factor" of mortality by increasing quantity of life significantly , it can on the other hand significantly influence the quality of living, perhaps even dramatically. For the two thousand years prior to the 20th century , The average for mortality was less than 50. We've only increased quantity of life by 20 years in the subsequent years since then. So , that would be minimal in comparison to what prevention and health has done to improve life . But, this doesn't even begin to reveal the real potential the effect quality of living can still impact health for a system. So , it proves rationally, that the emphasis of health really should be strongly placed on our quality of life more as just opposed to quantity(number years lived alone). No matter how great one increases the "quantity" of life, the "certainty of mortality" will always supersede it.
There perhaps is no more important a time than now to emphasize the "quality of living" in an era where a large part of the population are living a lot longer and to longer ages; people are living with multiple chronic illnesses subsequently as well. Shouldn't we then be focusing on our healthcare system's ability to effect and improve prevention to improve quality and not to put a human being through the pain that comes at the time of eventual mortality? Effecting prevention means , not , just doing merely a once a year annual physical or cancer check, but by performing and reaching daily life pattern-goals with a set of behaviors that effect eating and activity each day that are essential to continued quality of life. Quality of life is "hinged" on prevention. The outcome is multi-fold because not only can you improve disease and improve length of life; a health system can improve its costs, reduce spending, reduce waste, duplicity as well as improve the socio -economics and efficiency of that system . Prevention places the root of health squarely in the hands of the source where health and illness begins and ends with, the individual person themselves who must live his or her life according to nature . Morbidity and mortality are a result of daily habits directly related to eating habits and activity behavior.
A Healthcare system is influenced primarily by two general factors . They are based on health maintenance and the delivery of care by improving life, but a healthcare system is also a measure of economics. Today our system is 18% of GDP which utilizes vital resources between several industries. But these two main factors over-look perhaps the biggest "silent" factor that influences outcomes, mortality. Our culture, traditions and modern society wishes to over-look too often how and when death or how long to maintain a life system(organism) will cost a community (nation) in the long run. We tend to emphasize quantity of life more as an extension of measuring an effective system; we think as if medical science alone can guarantee immortality through physical intervention. This skewed thinking in society has "cost" us in the long run. It is not easy to think of life in mathematical terms due to modern cultures inability to accept our mortality as a pragmatic matter and natural fact of life because of how sensitive the issue is. We'd prefer to believe our bodies will be there always, and that if our body breaks down temporarily, medicine will always be there to "patch us up" regardless, like driving a car into a mechanic's shop . Quantity of life is not like a car warranty, rather quality of life is closest to being it because it addresses the physical, mental and emotional well being of the human organism, by not merely dealing with a statistic. The economics of a system prefers dealing with numbers that are nice and neatly packaged representations of morbidity and mortality on a budget sheet. However , human beings are not merely numbers. This is the main difference of a "quantitative-centric" health system as opposed to the "qualitative -centric system".
Healthcare systems are intimately tied to the economics of national budgets, therefore your life measured in quantity and quality is both a measure of how much of a system's available resources are utilized by consumers in the economy( medical consumption/cost of living index). Insurance acturarial experts are utilized in both private and public insurance companies(Kaiser, Blue Cross,Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security) for the very purpose of measuring an individuals "risk" of Morbidity) mortality as it impacts economics . Our current system is no different as "all" systems are mathematical equations that have to be balanced(i.e., a balanced budget).A system makes assessments of either "risks" or benefits. Morbidity represents risk as the insurance company has to utilize more of it's resources. That would mean that a longer living population with more chronic illnesses will utilize more resources. What would be the benefit of that? It means that the remainder of society , regardless of how healthy they are will have to "counterbalance" or compensate for this "over-utilization" for longer life(quantity). It is difficult for medical doctors and patients alike to look at human beings as a unit of risk assessment and calculate their disease as a economic risk unit and predict how to reduce their usage .But the actuaries at both private and public insurance companies do just that because there profession is to see the human being as a number(unit of measurement) and disease as a statistic not as a person. Neither the emotional aspect of what individuals and their families feel with loss or other intangibles are taken into account. These "qualitative" factors can never really be measured by actuaries. This would mean that it is better to issue a prevention oriented health system as the "hub" to "balance" its spending and improve quality of life with respect to quantity of use of resources. If more than 60% of medical benefits are utilized in the last 6 months of life . Quality of life will certainly become not only an ethical or economic issue, but one of national duty? That is what a quantitative oriented-economic-based( for profit) healthcare system urges as opposed to a prevention-healthcare(qualitative) based system. Sometimes a system , if it is more pragmatic than utilitarian , evolves out of being purely quantitative/economic(HMOs, PPOs/for profit) , by putting more emphasis on prevention(qualitative) methods. It begs the question if monetary value ever should or could have been placed on human life via a system(medical) that seeks to improve quality of that life. It also asks the question to our system about the paradox of how much to spend in those last six months of life as well.
Real prevention in which quality of life is hinged on is itself based on five primary points. These are to always to allow the consumer the benefits of having regular physical activity, nutritional support, a wellness-based labor force, emphasize personal responsibility and prevention education .
This "new era" of medical science and medical policy will begin to challenge society's views on the efficiency of a purely economic-centric system(prolongation of life regardless of costs). These issues will also include as they already now do, the definition and use of hospice care. Hospice care is where either an institution or an at at-home based care is set up where those who are diagnosed with a terminally ill disease are treated with special care. These services are tailored to the high morbidity and looming mortality of a patient. Some "unorthodox" practices in hospice care may include meditation, nutrition supplements, marijuana therapy, experimental trials and palliative care. Palliative care is of its own has also become perhaps even a bigger issue than hospice care because pain therapy(the main focus of the therapies) is a cross-between therapy of hospice care treatment for reducing pain for terminally ill patients, but palliative care also may means reducing pain up to the point of allowing the patient to "terminate" their own life. This very controversial issue is called Euthanasia. Both ethicist and physicians debate if this is really "therapy" for a patient who is in chronic severe pain and will no doubt eventually succumb due to their illness or the intensity of their pain this could be looked upon as a "slow self-suicide". Both physicians and ethicist are looking for that transcending key sublime way for patients to "exist" in the least painful way that preserves dignity and respect while seeming compassionate themselves. This area is very controversial because of the Hippocratic Oath physicians take and the "cold accounting" the economics(monetary costs) of dying has with the insurance system . So, the question remains is it just a pain relief or is it an "out" when the pain of terminal cancer or a chronic infection is unbearable and the humanity of letting someone push the morphine drip to their own determined level of alleviation is being asked. This leads us to the question of the "Do Not Recusitate Medical order(DNR Status). In the future of medical practice, historians may feel this would appear as a contradiction of terms. Again, the irony of do not therapy for a patient who is in need with the fore knowledge of knowing their mortality. In the future marijuana also will become used for pain in hospice and non-hospice related care in this new era health system. But, perhaps the greatest controversy to overhaul an already fee-for -service (for profit) healthcare system is how do we create the "socialization" of healthcare. This is the pinnacle of converting a free market health system to benefit all, because the incentive on healthcare now has to be changed to fit everyone regardless of socio-economic or class distinctions, and pre-existing conditions. How do you do that when "money has always been the incentive" behind the compassion of care-giving? Although medical doctors have been the friendly face of healthcare, it is the stern face of the medical-industrial-complex of a business enterprise and share holders that steer the ship. They are mutually incompatible. Our system has become a paradox.
One way to shift the paradigm is to look at what is being done correctly with healthcare delivery in Scandanavia, England, Canada, Taiwan and France. These systems have made it easier to treat in a socialized medical system because they accept mortality as a factor of life ( reality), they are pragmatic about death, they use health more as a utilitarian approach without giving up on its humanitarian duties. But, the biggest thing that makes these systems "Cadillac Models" of healthcare systems of the world is that they pay 50% or more of their income on healthcare.
Again, as the "certainty of death" ever looms in everyone's life at sometime, we must look at the cost of more people who will die at older ages with multiple chronic ailments. We will also be seeing more of "poly-pharmacy"( overuse of multiple drug prescriptions) . We will see more billion dollar price tags for the treatment of end stage diseases such as heart disease and cancer. Poly-pharmacy to infectious disease specialist means more drug resistance to antibiotics. Poly-pharmacy to chemical substances means a rise in either abuse or tolerance. The need of more multi-specialty medicine means more time spent by trainees in low wage medical residency -fellowship programs which later become very lucrative practices. We must see also how tort reform must be alleviated in the conversion of a pure economic driven medical system to a more humanitarian system. A move many lawyers are not yet willing to give into, just yet.
I do not believe that whatever "change" derived purely from any economic-financial end of a healthcare system, that in the end it is better than one that promotes preventive- qualitative care as primary . Will some aspect of cutting wasteful spending and duplicity be seen as "rationing" care in converting the system? In the last five years we have seen the U.S Public Health Task Force increase the age recommendations for getting Pap smears, mammograms, colonoscopy , PSA(prostate specific antibody) for detecting prostate cancer as well as specific markers for Ovarian cancer. Why? Many clinicians refute the reasoning or data supporting these new "risk" changes to increase the age on detecting these frequent cancers. These recommendations to some lead to late or totally missed diagnosis in the natural history of a patient's disease.
In the end mortality wins out overall and above anything else, but it seems the time that we are here we should have the choice of good quality health, regardless the length of time we live to enjoy it. No matter what type of system eventually takes place(Single Payer, Medicare for all, Universal Care, Socialized Care, etc...), the purpose of the insurance system's function is to produce better outcomes of the bottom line through predictability of morbidity and the valuation of mortality. This is done by determining the eventual risk of disease. With all the mathematics , predictive values, and other statistical metrics, an insurance system can not pre-determine exact mortality. However, they can assess individuals into risk stratified categories. The system asks what "burden" does one's lifestyle have on the limited resource( cumulative premium totals). In the future new forms of technology(nano-technology) the size of a human hair or smaller will be able to read every physiologic activity at the cellular level and feed it in real time to a main frame computer so that several clinicians, actuaries, underwriters, pharmacist, financial institutions and insurers can know your real time risk immediately. This will then help the "system" determine continuous "cost" to the system and guide the consumers behaviors more favorably in the direction of asset loss prevention . In the end we must all realize our own mortality, take responsibility for our own personal health more and understand the certainty and impact mortality has on all healthcare systems. It is up to the "architects" of systems and the logicians to polish up the "quality" aspect of our healthcare system before it is forgotten as an equally important factor as the quantitative.
Monday, January 6, 2014
Petro-Dollars, Peak Oil: World Economic System Barely Recognizable by 2020
Geo-physicists and political scientists alike to this date debate the issue whether the amount of petroleum available on the planet is sustainable . For a long time cheap oil drilling on the order of some 8 to 12 million barrels daily could be counted on without any worry. But, according to modern era petroleum engineers and industry experts(Simmons, Deffeyes) we may have reached such a reduction in the ratio of production to oil reserves and could suffer the results of a spiraling economic decline; we have come to what is described as the other side of "Hubbert's" Peak, a term named after the scientist who predicted an oil-reduction/crisis would hit beginning somewhere in the 1970s.He stated from his analysis that after that time we would be on the down slope of a "peak" of available planetary oil supplies. The next 10 years means that we would have to produce 200 million barrels of oil a day to meet consumer demand for petroleum just to keep up with the pace of a growing consumer population. We are dealing with a supply and reserve and utilization issue hitting us all at once.
With the drop in production , we will see a potential sharp rise in prices( the law of supply and demand taking affect), but what would be affected directly? Those corporations that saw the multiple benefits of petroleum for energy, weaponry, chemicals, medicine, pesticides and plastics began to be consolidate there influence as the "Petro-Chemical-Industrial -Complex", which makes this network one of the most powerful if not the most influential conglomerate(cartel) that determines all human life's outcomes. Those who consume petroleum based products are its target.Petroleum based products include plastics. What products can you name that aren't made of plastics completely or partially? Water bottles, refrigerators, furniture, T.Vs, radios, cell phones and most other home products we buy daily such as furniture, light fixtures are petroleum based. Petroleum products also include pharmaceuticals , so that drug prices will be affected, rising sharply affecting the health care system cost . Most of the pesticides and herbicides are petroleum based which means agricultural and animal food products will be vastly affected, again with sky-rocketing prices. A great deal of war weaponry is also produced from petroleum so that war and defense contract technologies are direct beneficiaries of petroleum , but so are peaceful tools such as silicon for computers, microchips, CDs, DVDs, movie film included. Numerous chemicals and of course and our automobile gasoline. But, many parts inside of cars and other transport vehicles are petroleum-based end products. Humans have made petroleum a major staple of life and would have a difficult time without its availability.
The U.S. alone which represents one out of twenty two people on the planet utilizes 25 % of the oil in the world while only holding 2 % of the oil reserves. These statistics alone have made some developing countries quite dubious about the U.S.' utilization of the majority worlds resources. With this with contribute to being a big polluter on the planet. China has raised its importation of petroleum by 25% in the last year and continues to grow in population use. Perhaps what we are witnessing today from them with some of the aggression in the South China Sea is based on this "supply and demand" concern and the need of "grabbing" oil reserves before we head toward the other side of the peak of oil as a preventive measure. But, these measures may have a heavier cost to pay as the world edges toward another global conflict.
Two thousand years ago the world population was only about 300 million( the same population as the U.S.A is today). Today it is over 7 billion. China has a population of 1.4 billion and India is at 1.2 billion and they are both steadily growing even with population control measures in place. With these demographics comes the production and purchasing of more automobiles and need of more petroleum based products. Population experts at the United Nations are no longer looking at the population growth as before. Today its describe by some like a ticking time bomb, because at this point we can't describe it any longer as only as doubling , but must look at the effects in terms of exponential growth rates.
American dollars are directly tied to oil and petroleum-based products commodities stock market and the protectionism that affords our access to being able to drill it in not-so-friendly parts of the world. If cheap oil is not available further, then stocks and the companies owning them would appear as being over-valued. This can create panic in the markets on Wall Street and the Chicago Commodities Stock Exchange, alike. It is this type of rumbling that lead to what could tip our "hat" to an all out full economic crash.
There are three potential outcomes for our planet if we do not immediately take action: One, is hoping unrealistically that all people would be willing to reduce use of fossil based fuels on their own or accept a mandate to do so. Secondly, attempt to quickly convert to alternative fuels globally. The third possibility is that those two prior things do not work, the real chance of naked aggression on available oil reserves in "unprotected territories that are threatened will be a ongoing matter.
Technologies such as the micro-chip have slowly began to become accepted functioning as a means to control overuse, waste, loss, duplicity, help tracking or conserving a product. Perhaps we would see this tools will importance use with a chip that would interact functionally with a person's daily life as it is related to petroleum based product use. We are very close to that now. New 3-D printers and organic-based printers in theory could create any and all products for everyone at virtually little or no cost just be printing it, but there has to be pre-product to make copies of a truck, car , home or plane which many of them are petroleum based themselves. Organic 3-d based products have been looked at replacing human body parts as a way to competing with repeat surgery or surgical error with virtually perfect organs that are also replaceable to help reduce cost of poor health maintenance in illness and an aging population . Biological 3-D printers have the potential to copy a steak, a fish, orange juice and other edibles just by knowing the chemical code and copying it as the original. This is also an option to feeding the planet as genetic modified foods appear to have been perfected at this stage. Genetic therapy , however, has been proven to cure imperfections in our DNA to prevent cancer; would also be another means to try to reduce all cancer treatment costs. The genetic modification of crops needs to be perfected as to not cause more harm and to become the worlds new food source. The world will have to think much further outside the box by looking at fuels such as wind, solar, hydro, and even organic based . After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, nuclear based energy seems a whole less promising and effective, even "clean coal"(fracking has come under scrutiny as well. The primary utilization of fuel in our society such as our homes, office buildings, malls and transport will have to be persuaded to accept these newer fuels as well. The unfortunate , but real ugly alternative to these newer fuels will being caught up in a "fossil fuel-based " system with continuous regional and possibly world wars over the last bit of reserves until our planet is almost entirely annihilated . Time, how much of it is available to the human race? How little and how greatly precious it is to "re-design a whole new world order of life at the edge of planetary disaster"? It is time to look back at ourselves and determine the real cause of our own shortcomings. We must look back and when we do ,we will be looking at a struggling planet or we might be brave enough and look forward to the new model of not only human survival , but possibly future human success. "No species can survive itself" if it can not imagine the philosophical and technological consequences of our current state. There are many scientific and technological aids that are available to assist us move forward and face the storm that is coming. No longer can we bury our heads in the sand and hope that the storm blows over and we can just poke our heads out again and go on as if nothing has happened. This time the magnitude and consequences are to great and can not be bargained for . In the 21st century humankind plays for keeps for everything it has including its next generation
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